A developing active sunspot complex appear poised to produce potentially
significant energetic solar flare activity over the coming days. Observers
interested in monitoring solar activity are encouraged to pay close attention
to active Region 9906, now transiting the south-central portion of the solar
disk. Complete details, as well as a map showing the location of this spot
complex, are available at: http://www.spacew/com/astroalert.html.

     Any observed energetic activity from this spot complex over the coming
days may be associated with Earthward directed coronal mass ejections
which may produce enhancements in auroral activity ("northern lights"). The
trajectory of any ejected mass could be fairly heavily directed Earthward.


SpaceWeather.com:

HERE COMES THE SUN: Twisted magnetic fields above sunspot 9906
erupted on April 17th (at 0800 UT) and hurled a lopsided coronal mass
ejection toward Earth. The expanding cloud could ignite Northern Lights
when it sweeps past our planet on April 19th or 20th. NOAA forecasters
estimate a 20% chance of severe geomagnetic activity at middle latitudes.

NOAA SEC Forecast:

Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate. 
Additional M-class flares, possibly including a major flare, are expected in 
Region 9906. 

Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at 
active to minor storm levels as the current disturbance recovers over the 
next 24 hours. Another disturbance at minor to major storm levels is
expected to begin on 19 April in response to the LDE M2/CME which occurred 
on 17 April. The greater than 10 MeV proton event currently in progress 
is expected to end within the next 24 hours. 



Apr 19, 2002 shift report
--------------------------

At the 10:00 am EDT telecon, we decided to activate SCS 107 at
14:15 UTC, and replan to start again at ~2002:111:02:01 UTC, emergence
from the radiation belts.

Chandra Radiation environment is high and decreasing.
We have stopped science because of the effects of 
the CME of April 17.

ACE 2 hr fluence is 3.4e8 vs. threshold 3.6e8. 
CRM-based orbital fluence is 3.5e9 vs. threshold 3.0e9.

Chandra is in the magnetosphere.