An X-class flare is currently (11/02/2003) in progress. If spawned from AR 486 or 488,
both near the eastern limb now, any attendant CME may only be a "glancing
blow". However, we should monitor the GOES proton rates to see if they
start rising in a hour or so in response to this X-class flare.
It has just been announced that the massive solar X-ray flare which occurred on 4 November was,
at best estimate, an X28. There is still a small chance this will be revised by a small amount,
but it is now official: We have a new number 1 X-ray flare for the record books, the most
powerful in recorded observational history. On Tuesday, 4 November 2003, this flare saturated
the X-ray detectors on several monitoring satellites. The associated coronal mass ejection
(CME) came out of the Sun's surface at about 2300 kilometres per second (8.2 million km/h).
Only part of the CME is directed towards Earth, so we expect the Earth will receive only a
glancing blow, since the source region is pointing away from us on the right on the limb of
the Sun as seen from Earth.
Nov 03, 2003 Shift Report
--------------------------
SCS-107 was triggered autonomously on rad-zone exit at ~2003:306:20:38 and ran
nominally. Spacecraft attitude is good for several days with momentum as
limiting constraint. More time is needed to observe the current trends in
radiation before a replan start time can be set. Next meeting to discuss
radiation and replan following the 9AM daily ops tag-up (405-244-5060 1159#).
Radiation telecon summary:
3 X-class flares in last 24 hours, hard proton storm and soft protons starting to rise.
ACE P3(primary soft proton monitor, 115-193keV) and P2 channels have gone bad,
either temporarily or permanently. P5 has also been corrupted, but may be OK again as of now.
Onboard radiation monitors are also very high now.
E1300 360.8 (10.0 trip)
P4GM 2379.4 (300.0 trip)
P41GM2.6 (8.47 trip)
Steve O'Dell has developed the following scale factors to estimate P3 flux from P5 or P6:
P3 ~= 50*P5
P3 ~= 200*P6
These can be used for P3 estimates in the short term, pending a more complete analysis.
A "Plan A" replan was defined as follows:
- Resume observations after next radiation zone exit, at about 309/1130Z
- GO/NOGO comm would be at 309/0750-0850Z
- Plan for an ACIS CTI by inserting a stop science at the beginning of the load
- Try to extend the 309/0750 comm to get a more current realtime look at onboard
radiation levels, before making final GO/NOGO decision
- Replan load will include 4678, 3699-3702 cals. MP will work with SOT MP on details.
Nov 04, 2003 Shift Report
-------------------
Radiation levels are currently very high. Since the ACE P3 channel is not working, we
are using the following scale factors from Rob Cameron's E-mail yesterday:
Name Telescope Energy RangekeV) P3 Scale Factor Channel Flux P3 Scaled Flux
(P3 = K*PX)
P3 LEMS30 112-187 -
P5 LEMS30 310-857 2034700 694000 (8:37am EST)
FP6p LEFS60 761-1220 30011000 3300000
P7 LEMS30 1060-19101000 4990 4990000
Even though the numbers vary, they are still very high.
EPHIN Levels at AOS were E1300: 26.4 (10.0)
P4GM: 184.3 (300.0)
P41GM: 0.3 (8.47)
Radiation situation is expected to improve as the large active regions 486 and 488 rotate off
the visible disk. Protons seem to be coming down nicely now.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Nov 3 at 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at high levels through day one. Regions 486 and 488
are due to exit the disk beginning on day two which should significantly drop flare activity by day three
of the period.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to range from quiet to severe storm
levels through day one of the period. A full halo CME resulting from the X8/2b event from yesterday is
expected to arrive early in the period on day one. Additional data from SOHO/LASCO imagery indicates that
there was significant deceleration of the CME. Predominantly active conditions are expected on day two with
isolated minor storm levels expected. Day three should see a return to unsettled to active levels.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event should drop below alert levels by day two.
Nov 05, 2003 Shift Report
-------------------
Significant solar activity: Solar flare activity was very high. A
total of 10 C, 4 M and 1 X class events was recorded
yesterday.(http://www.dxlc.com/solar/)
CMEs reported for past two days:
November 3: No partially or fully Earth directed CMEs observed.
November 4: A fast, large, full halo CME was observed in LASCO C2
images beginning at 12:04 UTC. With no obvious frontside source this
CME is likely to have originated near the center of the backside4. A
huge and very fast full halo CME was observed after the super flare in
region 10486 at 19:53 UTC. The speed of this CME has been estimated at
nearly 2400 km/sec. While the core of the CME will not reach the
Earth, the slower flank part could impact Earth early on November 6.
Estimated arrival window: 23:00 UTC 05 Nov. to 15:00 UTC 06 Nov.
(http://www.dxlc.com/solar/- Jan Alvestad)
Radiation Measurement Observed Observed/Limit
--------------------- -------- --------------
ACE 2hr fluence 8.50e+08 (over limit) (http://www.srl.caltech.edu/ACE/ASC/)
GOES-10/P2 4-9 MeV protons `P4GM' 5.66e+00 1/17 (ftp://ftp2.sec.noaa.gov/pub/lists/pchan/G10pchan_5m.txt)
GOES-10/P5 40-80 MeV protons `P41GM' 1.71e-01 1/5 (ftp://ftp2.sec.noaa.gov/pub/lists/pchan/G10pchan_5m.txt)
*ACIS* Orbital fluence (since perigee) (in perigee) (http://asc.harvard.edu/mta/alerts/current.dat)
EPHIN rates (cts/cm^2-s-sr) at last comm. OBSERVED RADMON limit or observed/limit
---------------------------------------- -------- -----------------------------
E1300 (2.64-6.18 MeV electrons): 9.8 1/1
P4GM (5-8.3 MeV protons): 3.1 1/97
P41GM (41-53 MeV protons): 0.9 1/9
Nov 06, 2003 Shift Report
--------------------------
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Nov 5 at 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be at low to moderate levels.
Region 486 still has the potential for M-class activity from beyond the west limb.
By day two and three, activity is expected to be at low levels.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to minor
storm levels. The CME from the X28 flare on 04 November is expected to arrive late on day one
or early on day two with isolated active to minor storm levels possible.
The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end on day two of period.
Nov 07, 2003 Shift Report
-------------------------
Radiation levels are expected to be low to very low over the next several days, since
the large active regions 486 and 488 have gone out of earthview, and region 484 is six
days from view. EPHIN rates in the last pass were low enough to start observations.
3-day Solar-Geophysical Forecast issued Nov 6 at 22:00 UTC
Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to range from very low to low.
Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to
active levels with isolated minor storm levels possible. Active levels with isolated minor
storm levels are expected on day one. By day two and three activity is expected to
return to quiet to unsettled levels. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to
end early on day one.