Shift Report Oct 09 2024 L9211

There was an X2 flare Oct 9 @1:55 UTC. There is an Earth directed CME. The GOES rates currently correspond to an HRC shield rate proxy of 2000. This may trigger TXings. The CME should arrive late Thursday night. Solar activity is expected to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on days one and two (09 Oct, 10 Oct) and likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class flares on day three (11 Oct).

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Solar radiation event Oct 9 Update 1 (10/09/24 - 10:02 AM)

There was an X2 flare at 283:01:55 UTC (Tuesday night Oct 8). There is an Earth-directed CME. TXings was triggered 283:03:33:59 UTC. ACIS and HRC are safe. Science loads are halted. The associated CME should arrive late Thursday night. The team will gather more data throughout the day and perform cleanup activities. We will meet after the 9 am tomorrow to discuss the return to science plan.

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Solar radiation event Oct 9 Update 2 (10/10/24 - 9:29 AM)

There was a short radiation tag up at 9:05.

Current status: Science instruments are radiation-safe. ACE P3 rates 10,000 and ascending HRC proxy 1000 (with a limit of 250) and descending slowly.

Forecast: Models project CME impact within the next 12 hours with a 24-hour tail. Kp rates are expected to exceed 6 most of Friday and remain as high as 4.3 late Saturday. There is a 40% chance of an additional X-class flare in the next 72 hours.

Plan: Restart science coming out of rad. zone Saturday night around 10 pm. Loads will go out for review late today or tomorrow. We will tag up after the 9 am tomorrow with a planned go/no go Saturday night at 8:15.

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Solar radiation event Oct 9 Update 3 (10/11/24 - 9:06 AM)

There was a short radiation tag up at 9:05 on Oct 11.

Current status: Science instruments are radiation-safe. ACE P3 rates 3,000 and descending HRC proxy 40 (with a limit of 250) and descending slowly. Kp 7 CME impacted Earth yesterday at 14:15 GMT

Forecast: Kp rates are expected to exceed 6 most of Friday and remain as high as 4.3 late Saturday. Rates should be 3.3 or less on Sunday. There is a 25% chance of an additional X-class flare in the next 72 hours.

Plan: Restart science coming out of rad. zone Saturday night around 10 pm. Loads are out for review If needed there will be a go/no go Saturday night at 8:15. But this may be waived by email.

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