Jan 16, Telecom (M. Juda Email)
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SCS-107 ran autonomously at ~2005:016:14:44 due to high radiation from recent
solar activity.
There is an upcoming eclipse at so CAP 950 for the eclipse contingency.
However, since the current attitude is expected to lead to a high temperature
we are planning to uplink an eclipse load that would interrupt the contingency
load during the comm at 21:40-23:40 UT (16:40-18:40 EST), This load would
maneuver to the entry CTI attitude, performed the planned eclipse maneuver and
eclipse commanding, and maneuver to the exit CTI attitude (to cool EPHIN).
Products are expected to be available for review in the 1-2PM EST time-frame.
As the radiation levels are still rising, it is too early to plan for the
science recovery. A tag-up to discuss the radiation and a possible plan for
recovery to science will be held in conjunction with the eclipse load review.
Jan 18, SOT Shift Report
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- All radation rates (ACE, GOES, EPHIN) continue to be very high following
the recent flares from region 720. The hardest proton channels have
turned over for the moment and are declining but the GOES P2 (EPHIN P4GM
analog) is still flat and ~6 times above the RADMON trip limit. The CME
from the long duration X3 flare is expected to arrive between now
and 12:00 UT on the 19th.
- Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to remain at high to
very high levels. Region 720 could produce yet another major solar event.
- Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to
continue at major to severe storm levels. Another CME arrival is expected
late on 18 January, or possibly early on 19 January, due to today's X3
flare, which should keep geomagnetic activity levels elevated. The current
proton events are expected to remain in progress.
Jan 19, SOT Shift Report
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- Region 720 is rotating out of the line of sight, promising a return to
more normal solar activity. However, it produced an X1.3 flare at
019:0822 today which has caused another increase in the hard proton
rates. There was also an associated CME but it appears not to be
Earth-directed.
- EPHIN P4 and P41 channels are declining and at ~1/2-1/3 of RADMON
trip values, but E1300 is nearly flat and at 2-3 times the trip value.
This is expected to be the limiting factor in returning to normal
operations.
- ACE P3 rates are moderate (~2000) and declining steadily
- Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be moderate to
high. Region 720, although diminishing in complexity, still has sufficient
potential for another major solar event.
- Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to remain
at active to severe storm levels for the next 24 to 48 hours. The arrival of
the CME associated with the X3 flare on 17 January has not yet been observed
but is expected to contribute to geomagnetic activity over the next 12 to 24
hours. The greater than 100 MeV proton event is expected to end by early on
19 January, barring a new major flare. The greater than 10 MeV proton event
is expected to remain in progress through late 19 to early 20 January.
Jan 20, SOT Shift Report
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- X7.9 flare from region 720 starting at 020:0639 with an associated very
fast and strong proton event. This is the strongest flare this year.
- Latest EPHIN rates from the 1305-1405 pass were quite high:
E1300 242.9
P4GM 655.8
P41GM 41.1
- Soft proton rate from ACE P3 channel is currently moderately high (~5000)
and declining steadily
Jan 20, Telecom (T Aldcroft Email)
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During the last pass from 020:1820-1920, E1300 rates were still at about 90
or a factor of 30 too high. The latest EPHIN plot data available show a
steady (SLOW) powerlaw decline. Looking at some rough numbers for E1300:
At 20:1320 E1300 ~ 380
20:1920 E1300 ~ 90
This looks like a factor of 4 per 6 hours, so it looks like roughly 30
hours (plus or minus) before we could resume. Based on that it appears
there is little hope of squeezing in any science before the next rad zone
entry at 022:0128. (And to do this would require heroics from FOT MP).
P4GM and the GOES analog are also well above RADMON limits and decaying
slowly, if at all.
Jan 21, SOT Shift Report
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- Shock associated with X7.9 flare passed at 2005:021:1648 and it
appears that the radiation environment may finally be settling
down enough to resume science in a day.
- Region 720 is passing around the Sun western limb, but a proton
event is still possible
Jan 21, Telecom (M Juda Email)
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High-energy protons are dropping but low-energy protons are rising. A CME may
be on the way with an arrival window at the Earth of 06:00 UTC on 21 Jan to
21:00 UTC on 22 Jan. Preferred Predicted Impact Time: 03:00 UTC on 22 January.
ACIS plans to run a CTI CAP at the day 022 22:30-23:30 UT comm pass. Plan to
try to resume science after the day 023 02:05-03:05 UT comm pass with a load
that will terminate the CTI run after ~20ks of data collection. The load will
combine the most critical observations from the JAN1705 week with the JAN2405
week. An attempt will be made to use the HRC-S/LETG and other grating
observations to minimize the fluence on ACIS of a the possibly elevated
low-energy proton environment.